Q2 2026 Market Intelligence Report

Q2 2026 Market & Trading Report

Product Line Expansion Update

EN590 Diesel · Jet A-1 · Fuel Oil RMG 380 — DMCC Free Zone, Dubai, UAE

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Executive summary

Q2 2026: From shock to cautious normalisation

Q2 2026 marked a transition from the acute shock phase that defined Q1 to a period of cautious normalisation — without a return to the pre-crisis trading model. Volatility, sanctions pressure, banking compliance friction, and structural shortages in specific product segments remained systemic features of the operating environment.

Alghaf Marine DMCC delivered broad-based volume growth across the portfolio while continuing active trading across EN590 diesel, Jet A-1 aviation fuel, and Fuel Oil RMG 380.

EN590 Diesel

+22% · 450k → 549k MT

Jet A-1

+18% · 2.7M → 3.186M bbl

Urals

+18% · 4.7M → 5.546M bbl

Naphtha

+12%

Other / pilot

+10%

Fuel Oil RMG 380

+5% · 377k → 395.85k MT

Market reality check

  • 80% of incoming inquiries remain non-executable.
  • Banking compliance has become the primary bottleneck in oil trading.
  • Physical, deliverable cargoes commanded a premium over paper market quotations throughout Q2.
Structural readiness

Buyers who are not structurally prepared for modern settlement mechanisms are unable to execute transactions in 2026 market conditions.

Market snapshot

Three core product lines — indicative context for Q2 2026.

EN590 Diesel

FOB Black Sea $615–695/MT with slight upward drift. Spread to ICE Gasoil narrowed to +$220–360/MT but remains elevated. CIF ARA physical premiums partially normalised vs Q1 peaks.

Jet A-1

Persistent premium in regions where supply interruptions recurred. Demand from Asia and Oceania was uneven — emergency supply seekers vs buyers deferring on price.

Fuel Oil RMG 380

Partial recovery in flows; Fujairah and Singapore remain key hubs. Middle East June 2026 exports tracked ~2.4M tonnes — a four-month high but well below the pre-war baseline of 5.5–6.0M tonnes/month.

EN590 market snapshot — Q2 2026

Parameter Value / range Trend vs Q1 2026
EN590 FOB Black Sea $615–695 / MT Slight upward drift
EN590 CIF ARA (physical) Premium narrowing vs Q1 peaks Partial normalisation
Spread to ICE Gasoil +$220–360 / MT Narrowing, still elevated
Price fixing beyond 3 months High risk Not recommended

Why most deals do not close

  • Lack of proof of funds
  • Undefined discharge port at inquiry stage
  • Non-functional banking instruments (LC/SBLC without confirmed bank lines)
  • Multi-layer broker chains with no direct buyer mandate

Based on internal estimates, over 80% of initial requests do not convert into executable transactions.

Product line expansion

Q2 2026 initiated portfolio expansion beyond the original three-product core — focused on regional demand, shorter execution cycles, and compatibility with existing logistics and settlement infrastructure.

Marine Fuel Oil (LSFO)

Fills gap left by incomplete Fuel Oil recovery. Target: UAE, Singapore, SEA hubs — leverages Fujairah bunker relationships.

Gasoline RON 95

Structural import demand with shorter cycles. Target: Africa, Central Asia — diversifies away from single-product exposure.

Naphtha

Feedstock demand from regional petrochemical buyers. Target: Asia, Middle East — opens industrial buyer segment beyond fuel distributors.

ESPO

Emerging arbitrage on Russian crude flows. Target: China, East Asia — extends trading scope upstream of refined products.

Petcoke

Recurring inbound demand, low execution complexity. Target: India, Africa — fast-cycle trades, low working-capital intensity.

Bitumen

Steady infrastructure-linked demand. Target: Central Asia, Afghanistan — complements existing EN590 corridor into the region.

How a transaction works

  1. Buyer registration & KYC verification
  2. Trading Portal access granted
  3. Application submission — product, volume, discharge port
  4. Stage-based funding confirmation
  5. Contract auto-generation
  6. Execution & settlement

All transactions are executed exclusively through the Trading Portal.

Access to trading

Due to high market volatility and operational risks:

  • Access is granted only to verified buyers who have completed full KYC
  • Proof of funds is required before any pricing or documentation is issued
  • All transactions are executed exclusively through the Trading Portal

Qualified buyers gain direct access to verified inventory, real-time pricing, and stage-based settlement — with full transparency at every step.

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This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a public offer. All market data and analytical assessments are presented for internal use and may not be construed as investment recommendations. Distribution without written consent of Alghaf Marine DMCC is not permitted.