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Oil Market Volatility Supports Active Trading Despite Lower Daily Prices
International crude oil benchmarks moved lower at the end of July, but the petroleum market continues to experience significant volatility.
Market data published by the Financial Times on 31 July 2026 indicated Brent crude trading at approximately USD 89 per barrel, while WTI was trading at approximately USD 84 per barrel. Both benchmarks recorded moderate daily declines.
The movement does not necessarily indicate a sustained reduction in physical fuel prices.
Refined product values are influenced by several factors beyond the headline crude oil benchmark, including refinery utilisation, regional inventories, refining margins, sanctions, export restrictions, freight rates, seasonal demand and product specifications.
Refining margins can move independently from crude oil
The price of EN590 diesel, marine gasoil or jet fuel does not always move in direct proportion to Brent.
Crude prices may decline while diesel premiums rise because of refinery outages or low regional inventories. Conversely, crude oil may strengthen while product prices remain under pressure because of excess refinery output.
This difference is reflected in the product crack — the margin between crude oil and the refined product produced from it.
Buyers should therefore avoid calculating an expected diesel price by simply applying a fixed discount or premium to a crude oil quotation.
Freight remains a decisive component
For CIF and CFR transactions, ocean freight can materially affect the delivered price.
Freight levels depend on the loading and discharge ports, vessel class, cargo volume, route restrictions, insurance conditions, waiting time, port congestion and availability of suitable tonnage.
A competitive FOB quotation can become commercially unattractive when the required vessel or route carries a high freight premium.
This is why CIF quotations should be calculated for a specific destination port rather than presented as a universal regional price.
Market discipline remains essential
In current conditions, professional buyers should expect suppliers to require:
- completion of corporate verification;
- acceptance of the transaction procedure;
- clearly defined shipment windows;
- short quotation validity;
- electronic execution of the SPA;
- staged settlement through the Trading Portal.
An unusually low price without a verifiable supply chain, loading programme or transaction procedure should be treated with caution.
A commercial offer does not reserve a cargo. Allocation begins only after the SPA has been electronically signed and the first contractual stage has been funded.
ALGHAF MARINE transaction model
ALGHAF MARINE executes transactions exclusively through its Trading Portal using a 2-of-3 multisignature digital-asset escrow structure.
Settlement is made in USDT or USDC according to the stages stated in the SPA. The seller cannot unilaterally withdraw escrowed assets. Release requires the prescribed multisignature approval and documentary confirmation of the relevant transaction stage.
Independent inspection and supporting shipment documents are incorporated into the transaction process.
Outlook
Oil prices may continue to move sharply in both directions as markets react to monetary policy, geopolitical developments and refinery availability.
For physical buyers, the decisive question is not simply whether Brent rises or falls. The key issue is whether the required product can be supplied at the requested specification, volume, location and delivery date.
Source: Financial Times, 31 July 2026.