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Iran’s Hormuz Strategy Keeps Global Oil Shipping at Risk
Iran is treating control of the Strait of Hormuz as a central bargaining tool in its confrontation with the United States.
The waterway remains critical to global crude oil, petroleum product and LNG flows. Although mediators are discussing a temporary transit mechanism, new attacks and disagreements over passage fees continue to delay a durable reopening.
Persian Gulf oil flows remain heavily restricted
According to the latest reporting, Persian Gulf oil flows have fallen to around 36% of prewar levels.
Some cargoes have been rerouted through alternative pipelines or have crossed the strait under exceptional arrangements. However, those alternatives cannot fully replace normal commercial transit.
The market remains exposed to:
- tanker attacks and boarding incidents
- war-risk insurance premiums
- uncertain passage conditions
- restricted vessel availability
- delays at loading terminals
- rapid changes in regional product inventories
A temporary political agreement would not immediately restore normal freight, insurance or vessel conditions.
Iran is taking a high-risk position
Iran’s hard-line leadership views control of Hormuz as one of its strongest remaining tools of pressure.
At the same time, the strategy carries significant domestic risk. Iran faces severe inflation, fuel shortages and an economy that the International Monetary Fund expects to contract in 2026.
The longer commercial shipping remains restricted, the greater the incentive for Gulf producers to develop permanent alternative export routes.
Implications for fuel buyers
Buyers of EN590, jet fuel, marine gasoil and other petroleum products should expect continued volatility.
Delivered prices remain dependent on:
- actual cargo allocation
- refinery output
- tanker availability
- route security
- insurance
- loading and discharge conditions
ALGHAF MARINE prepares offers according to confirmed product availability, destination, shipment window and current route conditions.
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