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Oil Falls Below $80 but Fuel Supply Risk Remains
Oil prices fell sharply on 4 August, with US crude closing near USD 75.77 per barrel.
The decline reflected optimism that negotiations could reduce disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the physical fuel market remains exposed to significant supply and logistics risks.
Crude and refined products do not move identically
The price of EN590, jet fuel or marine gasoil depends on more than the crude benchmark.
Refined product values are influenced by:
- refinery utilisation
- regional inventories
- product cracks
- export restrictions
- specification requirements
- seasonal demand
A reduction in crude oil does not guarantee an equal reduction in diesel or aviation fuel prices.
Freight can offset a lower benchmark
For CIF and CFR transactions, delivered cost also includes:
- vessel hire
- war-risk insurance
- route deviation
- port charges
- waiting time
- terminal handling
A longer or higher-risk voyage can absorb much of the benefit from a lower crude price.
Buyers should distinguish price indications from executable offers
A market price is not a cargo reservation.
An executable offer requires:
- confirmed physical allocation
- defined specification
- realistic shipment timing
- destination-specific freight
- inspection procedures
- documented settlement stages
The lowest headline price is not always the lowest executable delivered cost.
ALGHAF MARINE calculates each offer according to the actual cargo, route, destination and contractual procedure.